If I was Nick Clegg now, I’d be stressed to the point of incoherence. He is indeed in a position where his party can hold a real influence over national politics – but it’s far from the rosy situation polls were predicting last week. None of his options seem appealing.
A Lib Dem coalition with the Conservatives would immediately alienate many to the left in the party, and would create a grave electoral threat in Labour/Lib Dem marginal seats. However, this shape of coalition would hold a good working majority in Parliament and could get things done. The public mood appears (and I use that cautiously!) to be slightly on the side of the Conservatives, so I reckon Clegg would be supported by most “non-partisan” voters.
An alliance with Labour, on the other hand, would be a much shakier arrangement. The two parties alone would not command a majority in Parliament and would be forced to seek votes from minority and regional parties, who would no doubt demand special treatment in return. The Lib Dems would also face annihilation in close Tory marginal seats, and would disgust those who thought they were voting to get Labour out of office.
So I suppose to some extent it comes down to the electoral maths – what would hurt the Lib Dems most, losing in Tory/LD or in Labour/LD marginals? However, there’s also another couple of factors in the equation…
From the first leaders’ debate, Clegg’s image has been extremely shiny and he’s had a very warm reception from the electorate. Now, however, that image is tarnishing rapidly – and will continue to do so the longer this haggling goes on. He also hasn’t helped himself by appearing to go behind the Tories’ backs to deal with Labour, regardless of the realities of the situation. The longer this drags out, the worse he looks – and, correspondingly, the lower his credibility becomes to carry his party with him.
The other factor is the reality of electoral reform. Labour are making big promises now, but the truth is that any changes to our electoral system will almost certainly take years to implement. And in a Labour-Lib Dem alliance, there almost certainly won’t be years to spare before they are forced to call another election – at which the Tories stand to win in a big way.
However, there is another option.
Having flirted with Labour, Clegg could well return to the Tories and agree to support them on a so-called “Confidence and Supply” arrangement. This would not bind the LDs into a formal coalition – they would simply agree to support the Conservatives’ Queen’s Speech and budget, but could maintain freedom to oppose policies they disagree with. This seems the only option that will preserve the LD’s integrity, and their chances of increasing seats in another election under the current system.
Cameron almost certainly wouldn’t budge on PR, under such an arrangement – and would probably not commit to a fixed term agreement. This would mean that the Tories could set the date for the next election, potentially setting them up again for a big win. But the Tories would have to take some very unpopular decisions, and yes, there will be cuts. Staying out of a formal coalition may give the Lib Dems just enough distance from these decisions, and a principled stance of “support the bare minimum, in the national interest” might just win them greater support. It’s a big gamble though.
None the less, I can’t see any better options for Clegg right now – although even this carries the risk he will be seen as indecisive and sitting on the fence! Not a happy place to be at all…